President Trump meets President Marcos Jr. at the White House, July 22, 2025. Photo: The White House / Wikimedia Commons (public domain)
The Trump administration’s West Philippine Sea policy in 2026 rests on the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty: Washington has called its commitment to the Philippines “ironclad,” and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Manila on July 22, 2026, “We intend to live up to our treaty obligations” (Daily Tribune). President Trump also told President Marcos he would raise the Philippines’ concerns with Chinese President Xi Jinping (Rappler).
Donald Trump has been in the White House since January 2025, so the question for Manila is what the alliance looks like in practice. This article sets out what the administration has said and done, using public reporting, and flags what is still unclear.
Does the US treaty cover the West Philippine Sea?
The 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty remains the foundation of the relationship. The Congressional Research Service notes that the 2023 Bilateral Defense Guidelines state that an armed attack in the Pacific, “to include anywhere in the South China Sea,” on either country’s armed forces, coast guards, aircraft or public vessels would invoke the treaty’s mutual defense commitments. The same report says the Trump administration has affirmed an “ironclad” commitment to the Philippines and continued to provide foreign military financing (CRS, March 2026).
When President Marcos Jr. visited the White House on July 22, 2025, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reaffirmed that the United States would come to the Philippines’ defense under the treaty if its forces, ships or aircraft were attacked, including in the South China Sea (The Diplomat). In Manila on July 22, 2026, Rubio repeated it: “We intend to live up to our treaty obligations” (Daily Tribune).
How are trade and security linked under Trump?
After the July 2025 meeting, Trump announced a trade deal under which the Philippines would pay a 19 percent U.S. tariff, down from the 20 percent threatened earlier, and added, “In addition, we will work together Militarily” (Reuters). Marcos told Trump the alliance is the Philippines’ most important, noting that the United States is the country’s only treaty ally.
Are US forces still rotating through EDCA sites?
The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, signed in 2014, allows U.S. forces rotational access to agreed Philippine military locations. There are nine: Antonio Bautista Air Base in Palawan, Basa Air Base in Pampanga, Fort Magsaysay in Nueva Ecija, Lumbia Air Base in Cagayan de Oro, Mactan-Benito Ebuen Air Base in Cebu, Naval Base Camilo Osias in Santa Ana, Cagayan, Lal-lo Airport in Cagayan, Camp Melchor Dela Cruz in Gamu, Isabela, and Balabac Island in Palawan (Rappler fact check). Our separate EDCA explainer covers the sites in detail.
Did Trump promise to raise the WPS with Xi?
After a phone call on July 23, 2026, Malacañang said Trump assured Marcos he would take up the Philippines’ concerns in his next meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (Rappler). Philippine Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez said Marcos had not asked Trump to intervene and that the topic came up as Marcos updated him on recent developments (NewsWatch Plus). Malacañang has also said Marcos wants a “reset” in relations with China and no repeat of the Ayungin Shoal confrontation (Philstar).
What came out of the Trump-Xi summit?
Xi visited Washington on September 23-25, 2026. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the summit produced minimal specifics: agreement on “favorable tariff treatment” for $30 billion in goods in each direction, continued cooperation on fentanyl, an AI dialogue, and confirmation that the two leaders intend to meet again at the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November and the G20 in Miami in December (CSIS). Public schedules did not list the West Philippine Sea as a confirmed agenda item, which does not show it was not raised in closed-door talks (ASTIG). During the visit, the Philippine Coast Guard said Chinese vessels obstructed a resupply mission to Philippine troops with dangerous maneuvers, with no collisions or injuries (Nikkei Asia).
What should Manila watch next?
The treaty language is clear and the administration keeps repeating it. What remains open is whether Trump’s direct line to Xi, and the November APEC and December G20 meetings, produce any visible movement on Chinese pressure around Ayungin and Scarborough. For the Philippines, the practical test is steady allied presence, working EDCA sites and diplomacy that keeps the 2016 arbitral award at the center.
The September 24 Ayungin incident drew a direct US response: Ambassador Lee Lipton condemned China’s “dangerous blocking” of the resupply mission. See our report on the US condemnation of the Ayungin blocking, our Ayungin Shoal explainer and coverage of China’s drills near Scarborough Shoal.
Frequently asked questions
Has Trump reaffirmed the Mutual Defense Treaty?
Yes. The Congressional Research Service says the administration has affirmed an “ironclad” commitment, and Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reaffirmed treaty coverage, including in the South China Sea, in July 2025.
What tariff does the Philippines pay under Trump’s trade deal?
Trump announced a 19 percent U.S. tariff in July 2025, down from the 20 percent threatened earlier (Reuters).
Was the West Philippine Sea on the Trump-Xi summit agenda?
Public schedules did not list it as a confirmed agenda item for the September 23-25, 2026 visit, which does not show it was not raised in closed-door talks.
When do Trump and Xi meet next?
According to CSIS, they intend to meet at the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November and the G20 in Miami in December 2026.
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