Vice President Sara Duterte at her 2022 oath-taking. Photo: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).
More Filipinos now want Vice President Sara Duterte acquitted than convicted, according to an OCTA Research survey released on Wednesday, October 21, 2026: 25% favor acquittal and 21% favor conviction. The single biggest group, 47%, still says it wants to see the evidence before deciding, down from 55% when the Senate trial opened in July.
The poll was taken from September 28 to October 4, before the House prosecution rested on October 13 with only one of its four original articles left. That makes it the last read of public opinion before the case shrank to a single charge.
What did the OCTA survey find?
OCTA interviewed 1,200 adults face to face. The national margin of error is ±3 points, and ±6 points for each area (NCR, Balance Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao). GMA News reported that the survey was non-commissioned, meaning no client paid for it.
- Need to see the evidence first: 47% (55% in July)
- Acquit: 25% (21% in July)
- Convict: 21% (17% in July)
- Undecided or no opinion: 6%
“At the start of the trial, those who had taken a position were split 21% for acquittal and 17% for conviction. Three months later, the split is 25% to 21%. Both camps have grown by the same four points, the gap between them is unchanged, and neither comes close to a majority,” OCTA said.
OCTA added: “The gap is too small to be read as a clear national lead, and the evidence-first group remains the single largest bloc.”
Where does VP Sara have the most support?
Mindanao is the only major area where either verdict has a majority. Acquittal there rose from 41% to 52%, according to OCTA’s figures as reported by the Inquirer and GMA News.
Metro Manila moved the other way. Support for conviction in NCR rose from 19% to 34%, while acquittal slipped from 21% to 17%. In the Visayas, 53% were still waiting for the evidence in both rounds.
The biggest change was among young adults aged 18 to 24. The share of them waiting for evidence dropped from 50% to 29%. Conviction among the youth rose from 26% to 36%, and acquittal from 16% to 27%, the Inquirer reported.
Why does the timing of this survey matter?
The poll closed on October 4. Two days later, on Day 33 of the trial, prosecutors dropped the bribery charge. The Manila Times reported that in the same OCTA survey, 43% of adult Filipinos named bribery as the most serious accusation in the case. The charge the public saw as the gravest is no longer part of it.
According to GMA News, the House prosecution was allotted 62 trial days but used only 39 before resting on October 13. It had already dropped Article 1 on confidential funds, Article 3 on bribery and Article 4 on alleged grave threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his family. What is left is Article 2, which alleges that the Vice President had unexplained wealth not declared in her Statement of Assets, Liabilities and Net Worth (SALN). These remain allegations, and the Vice President has not yet presented her defense.
OCTA itself flagged this. Its next survey “will show whether the evidence-first group continues to shrink, and whether those who leave it move toward one verdict or continue to divide,” the group said.
For the full story of how the case got here, see our Sara Duterte impeachment trial timeline. We also argued earlier that a shrinking case is not a stronger case.
What happens next in the trial?
GMA News reported that the House prosecution said on Tuesday, October 20, that it would submit its formal offer of evidence before Friday’s deadline. The defense is set to begin its presentation on November 9. Our live hub on what’s next in the Sara Duterte trial tracks each hearing.
The defense may also ask the court to end the case early. Our Taglish explainer covers what a demurrer to evidence is. A conviction needs 14 senator-judges, as we explained in what the 14-vote rule means for VP Sara.
Frequently asked questions
Do most Filipinos want VP Sara Duterte convicted?
No. In OCTA’s September 28 to October 4 survey, 21% favored conviction, 25% favored acquittal and 47% said they needed to see the evidence first.
How many people did OCTA survey?
OCTA interviewed 1,200 adults aged 18 and above face to face, with a ±3 point national margin of error at 95% confidence.
Which region backs acquittal the most?
Mindanao, where acquittal rose from 41% to 52%. It is the only major area where either verdict has a majority.
Which charge is left in the impeachment case?
Only Article 2, the allegation of unexplained wealth not declared in the Vice President’s SALN. The confidential funds, bribery and grave threats articles were dropped.
Sources
- OCTA Research, as reported by Inquirer.net, “Octa: Most Filipinos await evidence vs Sara Duterte in impeach trial”, October 21, 2026
- GMA News, “Acquit or convict? Filipinos split over VP Sara Duterte impeachment trial in latest OCTA survey”, October 21, 2026
- The Manila Times, “OCTA Survey Shows Bribery Viewed as Most Serious Impeachment Charge Against Sara Duterte”, October 21, 2026
- OCTA Research, “Evidence before Verdict” (July 2026 baseline)
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